Monday Market Briefing - 2nd June 2025

New crop markers scored a new low on Friday as we continue to bump along the bottom, seemingly impervious to stories about supply that might be considered bullish in different times. Spot buying is so much the fashion that it is now quite normal for Mondays and Tuesdays to see buyers looking for delivery in the same week. Such is the confidence in supply and availability.

Northern hemisphere crops do look in pretty good shape across the board again this year. Substantial crop collapses, which came along pretty regularly up to 2012, are now slipping into more distant memory, and the cumulative effect of a long series of good crops is partly what is weighing on our markets now. One thing that might throw a European curve ball, this Thursday 5th June sees the expiry of Ukraines current open and unlimited access to EU markets for wheat. There is no official news of what will replace it but the rumour is, under pressure from France and others, the EU will revert to something much closer to the pre-war position where Ukraine had some free access but nothing like on the scale seen since the invasion.

The fact markets are unperturbed by this possibility sums up better than I can just how relaxed buyers are at the moment. We all know how quickly that can change. For now, UK continues to trade new crop at import parity prices meaning if we do get the promised wheat crop, we would need to shed some more value to have any chance of competing on export markets for feed grains.  It’s all quite a messy picture, to hear more about the background and how to get the best results from your 2025 crop marketing, don’t forget to book your place at one of our June breakfast meetings, the first one is at Blandford on Thursday 5th June, hope to see you there.

Have a good week.